Thursday, September 02, 2004

Buying Their Own Spin

Nestled in a WaPo piece by Mike Allen and Jonathan Weisman on the second-term agenda that Bush is allegedly going to present tonight are two remarkable graphs:

Bush's agenda consists almost entirely of expanded or repackaged ideas he has proposed before--partly because the deficit precludes major new programs. Outside economists said campaign strategists argued this week that the political terrain has shifted dramatically in the president's favor and that specific proposals are unnecessary.

"The strategists are saying, 'Everything is breaking our way. It looks like it's almost over,'" said one close adviser who demanded anonymity. In this climate, the political strategists believe they have no reason to offer plans that would give opponents new targets to attack.
Now I have no doubt the Bushies would love to avoid the troublesome little chore of having to lay out a second-term agenda. But "It's almost over"?

So far two national polls are out that reflect some of the impact of the convention. One, an ARG poll conducted August 30-September 1, shows Kerry up 2 among RVs. The other, a three-day-average tracking poll from Rasmussen, has Bush up 4 among LVs as of September 1. Unless BC04's internal polling is showing something a lot more dramatic, it's a tad early for these guys to be prancing around the end zone. Maybe they're even committing the cardinal political sin of buying their own spin.

Remember: the Convention has given Republicans the opportunity to get voters to squint sideways at George W. Bush and John Kerry in the light most favorable--and perhaps the only light truly favorable--to the incumbent. But they're not going to keep squinting sideways for two more months. Eventually, the two candidate's actual records, and their actual proposals for the future, will get out there. And don't forget that ol' devil Objective Reality, which is not friendly to George W. Bush.

Objective Reality may dump a cloudburst on BC04 as early as tomorrow, when the latest monthly jobs report is released. Unless they're playing rope-a-dope, administration officials act like they're battening down the hatches for some ugly news.

And then there's Iraq....
-- Posted at 4:29 PM | Link to this post | Email this post

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