Tuesday, October 05, 2004

More Yardage Figures on the Ground Game

In a new post on the New Republic site, John Judis sifts through the evidence about new voter registrations in a number of battleground states. His conclusion is that Dems are doing a lot better than their rivals in the Midwest, while they're trying to catch up with earlier Republican efforts in Florida.

Remember, though: boosting voter registration is just stage one of the Ground Game. The real key is voter turnout. And I remain convinced that Dems will have a big advantage there, because (1) high-turnout elections currently favor Democrats, (2) the peripheral voters most likely to vote Democratic are more geographically concentrated, making turnout efforts more efficient, and (3) Democrats are investing a lot more money and people in turnout efforts than the opposition.

And also remember this: you gotta get close to even in the "air war" for persuadable voters before the Ground Game really matters. Current polls are generally showing that Kerry is now drawing even with Bush. And as Mark Penn notes in today's WaPo, the CW that there are no "swing" voters this year is rather obviously being undermined by the large swings in support for Bush and Kerry over the last month.
-- Posted at 11:05 AM | Link to this post | Email this post

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