Gersh Does the Numbers
For those of you with an unslaked thirst for post-election analysis, Mark Gersh, probably Washington's most respected Democratic number-cruncher, offers a detailed look at the late presidential election in the new edition of Blueprint Magazine. After drawing a few general conclusions, he gets down into the nitty-gritty of the results in three key battleground states: Pennylvania, Ohio and Florida. Gersh's main point is that the Kerry-Edwards campaign actually did as good a job as can be expected in turning out the Democratic base vote. But it wasn't enough in Ohio and Florida, and was barely enough in PA, because the Democratic percentage of the electorate is shrinking. We need a persuasion as well as a mobilization strategy in the future, and we need to expand the base, not simply motivate it to turn out.
The full article is available online through the link above, but if you want to see the cool, multi-colored, county-by-county charts Gersh produced, you'll have to get the hard copy.