More Dust From the Ground Game
It's not as precise as the Sunday NYT piece, but there's another straw in the wind suggesting that this may be a high turnout election where Democrats are doing a better job at the "ground game" of signing up new voters and getting them to the polls.
Check out this AP story that reports big increases in new voter registrations, and seems to suggest it's happening most in pro-Democratic areas. Examples of both include a 65% increase (through mid-September) in new registrations in Miami-Dade County, Florida, as compared with 2000, and a 150% increase in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), Ohio.
The official Bush campaign spin on this phenomenon, interestingly enough, confirms my theory that the only places offering Republicans a ripe GOTV harvest are fast-growing exurbs. "It's the high-growth areas, the suburban and exurban areas in those battleground states... there are opportunities there because there are so many new residents to register," sez BC04's Scott Stanzel. Yeah, but (1) the states with big and fast-growing exurbs have other pro-Democratic trends underway that are equally important, and (2) they just aren't a factor in much of the midwest.
The Bushies better have a pretty good lead down the stretch if they want to win.